GoldMoney Alert - 1 July 2009
The First Half of 2009
The first half of 2009 is now behind us, so it is time to look at the scorecards.
The tables below present the percentage change in gold and silver for the first six months of 2009. For comparison purposes I also include the annual rates of appreciation achieved by gold and silver so far this decade against nine of the world's major currencies.
| Gold % Annual Change |
|---|
| | USD | AUD | CAD | CNY | EUR | INR | JPY | CHF | GBP |
|---|
| 2001 | 2.5% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 17.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% |
| 2002 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 23.7% | 24.8% | 5.9% | 24.0% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 12.7% |
| 2003 | 19.6% | -10.5% | -2.2% | 19.5% | -0.5% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% |
| 2004 | 5.2% | 1.4% | -2.0% | 5.2% | -2.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% | -3.0% | -2.0% |
| 2005 | 18.2% | 25.6% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 35.7% | 36.2% | 31.8% |
| 2006 | 22.8% | 14.4% | 22.8% | 18.8% | 10.2% | 20.5% | 24.0% | 13.9% | 7.8% |
| 2007 | 31.4% | 18.6% | 10.4% | 23.0% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 24.7% | 21.5% | 29.2% |
| 2008 | 5.8% | 32.5% | 32.4% | -1.1% | 11.9% | 30.4% | -14.9% | 0.2% | 44.3% |
| Average | 16.3% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 17.1% |
| (6 mos.) 30 June 2009 | 4.9% | -9.1% | -0.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 11.3% | 6.8% | -6.8% |
| Silver % Annual Change |
|---|
| | USD | AUD | CAD | CNY | EUR | INR | JPY | CHF | GBP |
|---|
| 2001 | -0.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | -0.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 14.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| 2002 | 4.8% | -4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | -11.0% | 4.3% | -5.0% | -12.6% | -5.3% |
| 2003 | 24.0% | -7.3% | 1.4% | 23.9% | 3.2% | 17.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% |
| 2004 | 14.3% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 14.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% |
| 2005 | 29.6% | 37.7% | 25.5% | 26.3% | 48.1% | 34.6% | 48.8% | 49.3% | 44.4% |
| 2006 | 45.3% | 35.3% | 45.3% | 40.5% | 30.4% | 42.6% | 46.7% | 34.8% | 27.5% |
| 2007 | 15.4% | 4.1% | -3.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 13.5% |
| 2008 | -23.8% | -4.7% | -4.7% | -28.9% | -19.5% | -6.2% | -38.8% | -27.9% | 3.8% |
| Average | 13.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 13.1% |
| (6 mos.) 30 June 2009 | 20.4% | 4.4% | 14.5% | 20.6% | 19.5% | 18.4% | 27.8% | 22.6% | 7.0% |
Here are my observations about gold and silver's performance so far in 2009.
- Silver is clearly outperforming gold. It has risen against all nine currencies, ranging from a low of 4.4% in terms of the Australian dollar to a high of 27.8% against the Japanese yen. Silver's average appreciation against the nine currencies is 17.2%.
- Silver is also doing better this year than its annual averages from 2001-2008 for every currency except the Australian dollar and British pound. Both of these currencies sold off especially hard after the Lehman Brothers collapse last year. So it is understandable that both of these currencies have bounced back strongly, particularly given this year's resurgence in commodity prices (the CRB Continuing Commodity Index is up 9.8% this year). Consequently, silver's gains over the past six months were the smallest against these two currencies because of their relative strength.
- Gold declined in the first six months of this year against three currencies. These are the two strong currencies - the Australian dollar and British pound - and, gold is also down slightly against the Canadian dollar, another currency hit hard after the Lehman collapse.
- Against all nine currencies, gold eked out a 1.9% average rate of appreciation during the first half of the year.
- Gold is up 4.9% against the US dollar so far this year. It will be interesting to see gold's result at the end of the year, and whether it manages to climb against the US dollar for its ninth year in a row.
It is clear from the above tables that gold has been contained during the first half of this year. In contrast, silver is doing exceedingly well.
Only time will tell what the second half of the year will bring, but the ongoing debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies still favors the ongoing accumulation of gold and silver. By doing so, the above tables make clear that you are saving sound money, namely, money that preserves your purchasing power.
Published by GoldMoney
Copyright © 2009. All rights reserved.
Edited by James Turk
This material is prepared for general circulation and may not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who reads it. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representations or warranty, express or implied, is made by GoldMoney, its affiliates, representatives or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect the writer's judgement as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. To the full extent permitted by law neither GoldMoney nor any of its affiliates, representatives, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior consent of GoldMoney.
